Researcher Degrees of Freedom and the Pre-registered Analysis Plan · seed 1 · A4, ink-friendly. The answer key prints on its own page for grown-ups.
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Locking your analysis plan in advance

Science · Scientific Inquiry · ages 22-24
Name ______________________   Date ____________
  1. Why can trying several analyses and reporting only a significant one invalidate the advertised error rate?

    • Each analysis retains the advertised rate, so selection leaves the overall rate unchanged
    • Selection creates extra chances for a false positive
    • Sharing observations makes all analysis results identical, eliminating any selection effect
  2. Which entry belongs in a pre-registration of the primary analysis?

    • The outcome, exclusion rule and model
    • The model selected later from whichever subgroup has the smallest p-value
    • The final hypothesis reconstructed from the pattern observed after collection
  3. Pre-registration prohibits exploratory analyses after collection.

    Circle one:   True   False

  4. A draft specifies its outcome and sample target but says only 'analyse appropriately'. Which addition resolves the primary-analysis ambiguity?

    • Specify model, covariates and missing-data handling
    • Specify that several models will be tried and the most significant one called primary
    • Specify that the primary model will be chosen after examining the treatment-group results
  5. A team repeatedly applies an ordinary fixed-sample efficacy test and stops at its first significant result. What can happen?

    • The stated alpha still bounds the whole procedure because every individual look uses it
    • The stopping decision changes power but cannot change the null rejection probability
    • The overall false positive rate can exceed alpha
  6. Nonsignificant studies are rarely published. What can a reader conclude about the visible literature?

    • It estimates all attempted studies without bias if the published studies report their individual p-values
    • It may represent a selected portion of the evidence
    • It determines the proportion of false findings without information about unpublished studies
  7. A trial needs safety monitoring and interim efficacy decisions. Which plan addresses the repeated-testing risk?

    • Specify safety rules and calibrated sequential efficacy boundaries
    • Keep the ordinary efficacy threshold at every look because the maximum sample size was registered
    • Adjust only the final efficacy test while allowing earlier stopping at ordinary significance thresholds
  8. A hypothesis was developed after inspecting results but is reported as pre-planned. What correction is needed?

    • Call it confirmatory because the hypothesis has a plausible scientific explanation
    • Keep the pre-planned label if the reported p-value passes the original threshold
    • Report its timing and exploratory status
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Answer key

For grown-ups. Fold this page away before handing over the rest.

Locking your analysis plan in advance W1-mt_UJgZQ2AADm-s1

  1. Selection creates extra chances for a false positive · Selecting among analyses adds opportunities for significance under the null.
  2. The outcome, exclusion rule and model · Specify the intended analysis before results guide the choices.
  3. False · Exploration remains useful when its timing and status are reported.
  4. Specify model, covariates and missing-data handling · The worked plan names the test, covariate choice and treatment of missing outcomes.
  5. The overall false positive rate can exceed alpha · The procedure adds result-dependent opportunities to stop that the ordinary threshold did not account for.
  6. It may represent a selected portion of the evidence · Publication selection can distort the visible record, but does not determine which findings are false.
  7. Specify safety rules and calibrated sequential efficacy boundaries · Calibrated sequential efficacy methods address the full decision procedure while safety monitoring remains available.
  8. Report its timing and exploratory status · Scientific plausibility and significance do not change when the hypothesis was developed.
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