Joint, Marginal and Conditional Probability · seed 1 · A4, ink-friendly. The answer key prints on its own page for grown-ups.
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Reading joint probability tables

Computing · Machine Learning · ages 18-19
Name ______________________   Date ____________
  1. X is 1 for bike delivery and 0 for van delivery. Y is 1 for on time and 0 for late. What event does P(X=1,Y=0) describe?

    • The parcel arrived on time, by either delivery method.
    • The parcel came by bike, regardless of its arrival time.
    • The parcel came by bike and arrived late.
    • The parcel came by van and arrived on time.
  2. Choose one of 24 users uniformly. App users: 9 subscribed, 3 not subscribed. Web users: 6 subscribed, 6 not subscribed. What is the marginal probability of being subscribed?

    • 0.375
    • 0.625
    • 0.500
  3. For events A and B with positive probabilities, P(A given B) must equal P(B given A).

    Circle one:   True   False

  4. Choose one of 25 parcels uniformly. Bike deliveries: 9 on time, 6 late. Van deliveries: 7 on time, 3 late. What is the joint probability that the parcel came by bike and was late? Give a decimal.

    Answer: ______________

  5. In a complete 3-by-3 joint table, one entry equals its row marginal multiplied by its column marginal. This alone proves that the variables are independent.

    Circle one:   True   False

  6. The complete joint table has X=1,2,3 and Y=0,1. In that Y order, the rows are X=1: 0.10,0.15; X=2: 0.20,0.15; X=3: 0.05,0.35. What is P(X at least 2)? Give a decimal.

    Answer: ______________

  7. P(B)>0. Within B, X takes only 1, 2 and 3. P(X=1 given B)=0.20 and P(X=2 given B)=0.30. What is P(X=3 given B)? Give a decimal.

    Answer: ______________

  8. The complete joint table has X=0,1 and Y=0,1,2. In that Y order, the rows are X=0: 0.10,0.15,0.05; X=1: 0.20,0.30,0.20. What is P(X=Y)? Give a decimal.

    Answer: ______________

  9. X and Y each take only 0 and 1. Their complete joint table is P(0,0)=0.12, P(0,1)=0.28, P(1,0)=0.18, P(1,1)=0.42, where P(x,y)=P(X=x,Y=y). Are they independent?

    • No: unequal joint entries prove that the variables are dependent.
    • Yes: all four entries equal their marginal products.
    • Cannot tell: a complete joint table cannot establish independence.
  10. P(A)=0.45 and P(B given A)=0.60. What is P(A and B)? Give a decimal.

    Answer: ______________

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Answer key

For grown-ups. Fold this page away before handing over the rest.

Reading joint probability tables W1-mt__Rj-hOSMEw-s1

  1. The parcel came by bike and arrived late. · The comma specifies both values together. X=1 means bike, and Y=0 means late.
  2. 0.625 · Combine subscribed users from both channels: (9+6)/24=15/24=0.625.
  3. False · The overlap is the same, but the denominators can differ. Equality is not guaranteed.
  4. 0.24 · The bike-and-late cell contains 6 of all 25 parcels, so its joint probability is 6/25=0.24.
  5. False · Independence requires the product rule in all nine cells. A match in one cell does not establish the other eight matches.
  6. 0.75 · The marginal probabilities for X=2 and X=3 are 0.35 and 0.40. Their sum is 0.75.
  7. 0.5 · The complete conditional distribution totals 1. Its missing entry is 1-0.20-0.30=0.50.
  8. 0.4 · Equality occurs only at (0,0) and (1,1). Add their probabilities: 0.10+0.30=0.40.
  9. Yes: all four entries equal their marginal products. · The X marginals are 0.40 and 0.60; the Y marginals are 0.30 and 0.70. Their four products equal the four joint entries.
  10. 0.27 · Multiply the conditional probability by its conditioning probability: P(A and B)=0.60*0.45=0.27. Independence is not required.
Worksheet · LightMySky