---
title: "Ordering Likelihoods"
description: "Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely, including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another or a spinner with sec"
canonical: https://lightmysky.com/learn/mathematics/ordering-likelihoods-mt_UcGn2hjhYU
source: https://lightmysky.com/learn/mathematics/ordering-likelihoods-mt_UcGn2hjhYU.md
retrieved: 2026-10-19
---

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# Ordering Likelihoods

Compare the likelihood of different events and order them from least to most likely, including situations with unequal outcomes such as a bag with more of one colour than another or a spinner with sections of different sizes. Explain reasoning using informal language.

Subject: Mathematics · Area: Probability · Ages 9 to 10
Page: https://lightmysky.com/learn/mathematics/ordering-likelihoods-mt_UcGn2hjhYU

## Ready when they can

- Order four or more events from least likely to most likely and justify each placement
- Compare likelihoods when outcomes are not equally likely, for example 'Drawing red from a bag with 7 red and 3 blue is more likely than drawing blue'
- Explain why some events are closer to 'even chance' and others are closer to 'certain' or 'impossible'

## Lesson: Putting chances in order

To order chances, compare the part of each set that matches the event with the whole set. If the totals match, the larger matching count is more likely. If totals differ, compare the shares, not just the counts. Then place events from least likely to most likely.

*(drawing: A bag has 7 red counters and 3 blue counters. There are more reds, so picking red is more likely than picking blue.)*

**Example.** Priya lines up four spinners. One is mostly blue, one is half blue and half yellow, one is mostly yellow, and one is all yellow. She orders them from least likely to land on blue to most likely: all yellow, mostly yellow, half-and-half, mostly blue. She checks each spinner by comparing how much blue it has.

*(drawing: Each bag has 10 counters. Order the bags from least likely to most likely to give you red: Bag D, Bag C, Bag B, Bag A.)*

An event is closer to certain when its share of possible outcomes is larger. A share near half is closer to even chance. A small share is closer to impossible. Compare the share with the whole set before ordering events.

**Recap.** To order likelihoods, compare how many ways each event can happen: more of one outcome means closer to certain, less means closer to impossible.

## Practice

14 questions on this page, each with its working shown.

## Needs first

- [Likelihood Language](https://lightmysky.com/learn/mathematics/likelihood-language-mt_iFFKZd-Vgv)

## Opens up

- [Equally Likely Outcomes](https://lightmysky.com/learn/mathematics/equally-likely-outcomes-mt_xSgAgg9Ej_)