What order check does every causal claim need?

• The effect must come well before the cause
• Order never matters in history
• The proposed cause must come before the effect

What is the difference between correlation and cause?

• Correlation is moving together; cause means one brings about the other
• They are two words for exactly the same thing
• Cause is weaker evidence than correlation

What is a third factor?

• A third historian who disagrees
• Another change that explains both linked trends at once
• A third copy of the same timeline

A writer claims new banks caused the first factories, but records show banks spread after the mills. What fails?

• The mechanism check, since coal cannot power steam
• The order check, since the effect came first
• The honesty check, since banks never existed

Ice cream sales and drownings rise together each summer. What should you conclude?

• Ice cream causes drowning, so ban it at beaches
• Summer heat drives both, so neither causes the other
• Drowning causes ice cream sales to rise

Plague deaths lifted wages because germs signed pay deals with lords.

Circle one:   True   False

A friend's theory cannot be shaken by any possible find. What is wrong with it?

• It is preaching, not reasoning, since nothing could count against it
• It uses far too much evidence
• It checks the order of events too carefully

Your rival claims drought alone broke an old state. Records show a tax revolt and a war struck the same decade. What is your best reply?

• Agree at once, since single causes always win
• Draw the web: drought plus revolt plus war may jointly break it
• Deny droughts can ever matter