Judging a Political Claim · seed 1 · A4, ink-friendly. The answer key prints on its own page for grown-ups.

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Civics & Economics · Government · ages 16-18
Name ______________________   Date ____________

  1. A leaflet says public spending rose by 12%, but gives no comparison date or period. Which request would clarify what spending figures were compared?

    • The comparison year and the dates covered by the figures
    • The spending total and the campaign's funding source
    • The services funded by the spending and the department responsible for each service

  2. Bus use rose after fares were removed. A campaign says free fares caused the rise. What does this comparison establish?

    • The comparison shows that lower fares caused higher bus use.
    • The rise establishes that fare removal was the main cause, with route changes having a smaller effect.
    • Bus use rose after fare removal, but the comparison alone does not establish why.

  3. Unemployed people fell from 40 to 30, while the labour force fell from 800 to 500. The unemployed count fell, but the unemployment rate rose.

    Circle one:   True   False

  4. A poll about national opinion interviews whoever passes one shopping centre. What is the main sampling concern?

    • A convenience sample may not represent people nationwide.
    • The national estimate is reliable if many passers-by were interviewed.
    • A busy shopping centre gives coverage similar to a national random sample.

  5. A campaign promises 500 training places at £600 each and calls £300,000 the full annual cost. Which assessment checks the promise most carefully?

    • Check the multiplication, then accept £300,000 as the full annual cost.
    • Check other expenses, realistic inputs and how the annual bill would be funded.
    • Compare £600 with similar courses, then treat that price check as enough to confirm the full annual bill.

  6. A poll aims to forecast an election result, rather than describe all eligible voters' views. Which group should its estimate represent?

    • All eligible voters, with each person's views counted equally regardless of expected turnout
    • People who choose to answer an online political poll, even if some are not expected to vote
    • People likely to vote, estimated rather than known for certain

  7. Two campaigns report different unemployment figures for the same month. What is the best first check?

    • Average the two reported figures before checking whether they use the same unemployment measure.
    • Find the source releases and compare their populations and definitions.
    • Compare the campaigns' percentage changes before checking which population each unemployment figure covers.

  8. A fictional service received £60 million in 2019, £90 million in 2023 and £78 million in 2024. Which description of its 2024 cash budget is correct?

    • A cut against 2023, but an increase against 2019
    • A cut against both comparison years
    • An increase against both of the earlier comparison years
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Answer key

For grown-ups. Fold this page away before handing over the rest.

Read the number behind the number W1-mt_pGwJVkz8L1-s1

  1. The comparison year and the dates covered by the figures · The baseline and period identify which spending figures were compared. Without them, the 12% claim is incomplete.
  2. Bus use rose after fare removal, but the comparison alone does not establish why. · The comparison shows a rise after the policy. It does not rule out other explanations, so it cannot establish the cause on its own.
  3. True · The earlier ratio is 40 ÷ 800 = 0.05 = 5%. The later ratio is 30 ÷ 500 = 0.06 = 6%. The count fell from 40 to 30, but the rate rose from 5% to 6%.
  4. A convenience sample may not represent people nationwide. · People were selected because they were easy to reach at one site. They may differ from people elsewhere in the country.
  5. Check other expenses, realistic inputs and how the annual bill would be funded. · 500 × £600 = £300,000 is correct. That calculation does not establish that all expenses are included, the inputs are realistic or the funding is credible.
  6. People likely to vote, estimated rather than known for certain · An election result depends on ballots cast. Forecasters estimate likely voters, but cannot know final turnout in advance.
  7. Find the source releases and compare their populations and definitions. · Different populations or definitions can produce different figures. Check the original releases before treating the figures as comparable.
  8. A cut against 2023, but an increase against 2019 · £78 million is £12 million below £90 million, but £18 million above £60 million. The baseline determines which comparison is being made.
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