Power and Effect Size, Decided Before the Data · seed 1 · A4, ink-friendly. The answer key prints on its own page for grown-ups.

Planning power before you collect data

Science · Scientific Inquiry · ages 22-24
Name ______________________   Date ____________
  1. Independent normal observations have known sigma. A one-sided test compares H0: mu = mu0 with H1: mu > mu0. Keep alpha and the true effect mu - mu0 > 0 fixed. Which change raises power?

    • Reduce independent sample size while keeping variability unchanged
    • Increase independent sample size with variability unchanged
    • Increase variability while keeping independent sample size unchanged
  2. What does planned power describe?

    • Rejection probability at a specified true effect
    • The probability that H0 is false after a significant result
    • The probability that an estimated effect exceeds the useful-effect threshold
  3. For the same fixed test and assumptions, power calculated from the observed effect supplies independent evidence beyond the test result.

    Circle one:   True   False

  4. An unrounded sample-size expression is E = (C / delta)^2, with C > 0 fixed. E = 144 at delta = 3. When delta is halved to 1.5, what is E before rounding?

    • 576
    • 288
    • 72
  5. A large study finds a small effect with a tiny p-value. What helps judge practical importance?

    • Compare the p-value alone with a smaller significance threshold
    • Compare the achieved sample size alone with the planned enrollment
    • Compare the estimate and interval with a useful-effect threshold
  6. A design has low power for a small true effect. Only its significant estimates are reported. Which concern follows under common sampling models?

    • The selected estimates must have smaller sampling errors than all unreported estimates
    • Selection can inflate the reported magnitudes
    • The significant subset estimates the original design's power without knowing the true effect
  7. For independent normal observations with known sigma, plan an upper-tailed mean test at alpha = 0.05 and power = 0.80. Use n = ceil[((1.645 + 0.842) sigma / delta)^2], where ceil rounds up. With sigma = 10 and positive target shift delta = 2, what n results?

    • 155
    • 154
    • 156
  8. Use n = ceil[(C / delta)^2], where C > 0 is fixed, delta is a positive target effect and ceil rounds up. A replication substitutes an inflated selected estimate for delta. What sample-size risk follows for the smaller true effect?

    • The larger target requires a larger sample at the same alpha and power
    • The target changes alpha automatically, leaving required sample size unchanged
    • The sample can be too small for the true effect
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Answer key

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Planning power before you collect data W1-mt_zYNmSWAJT8-s1

  1. Increase independent sample size with variability unchanged · For this upper-tailed test at a fixed positive effect and alpha, increasing independent sample size with variability unchanged raises power.
  2. Rejection probability at a specified true effect · Power is a rejection probability under a specified alternative, not a probability assigned to H0.
  3. False · Observed-effect power reuses the result and is not independent evidence.
  4. 576 · Halving delta doubles C / delta. Squaring multiplies E by four: 144 × 4 = 576.
  5. Compare the estimate and interval with a useful-effect threshold · Practical importance requires a scientific comparison of magnitude and uncertainty.
  6. Selection can inflate the reported magnitudes · Selecting significance can favor unusually large magnitudes without proving every selected estimate is inflated.
  7. 155 · Using the supplied rounded constants gives 154.629225 before rounding. Its ceiling is 155 independent observations.
  8. The sample can be too small for the true effect · With the other planning inputs fixed in C, a larger delta cannot increase required n. An inflated target can leave the sample too small for the smaller true effect.
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